Assess the pharmaceutical market forecast at $1.6 billion in 2028

New World Preview Report Reveals Strong Revenue Growth as Pricing and Patents Grow Unfavorable

London, UK and Boston, MA – October 18, 2022: The global pharmaceutical industry is expected to see its sales increase by 6% at an annualized rate between 2022 and 2028, according to the latest Global overview published by Assess ltd. The annual report, which details the future of the biopharmaceutical sector, forecasts industry revenues of $1.6 billion in six years.

Mike Gallup

The leader of this market will be Roche, currently the fifth player in the market, with 62.7 billion dollars in sales expected in 2028, or 3.9% of the global market. AbbVie is seen up close with prescription sales of $62 billion that year. The fastest growing big pharma player will be AstraZeneca, according to Evaluate, whose revenue is expected to grow 5.8% year-over-year through 2028.

Mike Gallup, CEO of Norstelle, Evaluate’s parent company said, “The latest data from our consensus forecast shows the industry in good shape for years to come. While the stock market, even for the biggest players, is a tough place for the pharma and biotech industry right now, a 6% growth rate shows good fundamentals, even amid widespread economic and geopolitical turmoil. .

The report, which draws on consensus forecast data from Evaluate Pharma and predictive data from Evaluate Omnium, also highlights the impending patent cliff, with patent expirations over the next six years potentially putting up to $108 billion in sales at risk. However, Evaluate predicts that lost sales will be more moderate by $26 billion, given the industry’s expertise in defending successful franchises.

Key findings of the report include:

  • R&D growth will slow to 2.6% between 2022 and 2028, from 7.3% from 2014 to 2021
  • Roche will be the largest pharmaceutical company by revenue in 2028
  • Keytruda will be the best-selling drug in 2028
  • For the first time, a drug against Alzheimer’s disease (gantenerumab from Roche and MorphoSys) is ranked as the most valuable R&D project
  • Combined obesity sales in 2028 are expected to reach $11 billion, an annualized growth rate of 30%

Gallup added, “The slower growth rate of R&D spending may seem surprising, but it doesn’t necessarily mean less innovation. Increased efficiency in clinical trials, more digital tools and greater use of machine learning in drug discovery – as well as a rollback in huge Covid-related spending – all mean that efficiencies can be found in the development pipeline”.

The report, Evaluate World Preview 2022: Outlook to 2028 is now available for download. A webinar will take place on November 3 at 3 p.m. GMT, 11 a.m. EST. Registration is available here:


About Evaluate Ltd
Since 1996, Evaluate, a Norstella company, has provided the life sciences industry with the data, information and intelligence needed to facilitate confident decision-making on high-value investments in treatments and markets. We enable our customers to integrate our proprietary and industry data into their workflows, tools and processes so they can work more efficiently and effectively. For more information on Evaluate, visit and follow us on LinkedIn and Twitter.

About Norstella
At Norstella, our mission is simple: to help patients access lifesaving therapies. Norstella is made up of several leading organizations – Evaluate, MMIT, Panalgo and The Dedham Group – which have come together to offer a full range of pharmaceutical consulting services and solutions. As a single organization, Norstella provides life science customers with the right tools and expertise to navigate the complexities at every stage of the drug development lifecycle, from pipeline to patient. For more information, visit Norstelle and follow LinkedIn.

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